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Smallville Ratings Analysis

May 2006

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[Note: There are SPOILERS on this page for Smallville late Season 5 episodes, including the finale.  So for those who haven't seen these episodes, you've been warned!]

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5-16 "Hypnotic" Down 23.4% to 4.78 Million
5-17 "Void" Down 11.3% to 4.24 Million
5-18 "Fragile" Down 7.1% at 3.94 Million Viewers
5-19 "Mercy" Up 11.9% to 4.41 Million Viewers
5-20 "Fade" Down 1.6% to 4.34 Million Viewers
5-21 "Oracle" Up 10.8% to 4.81 Million Viewers
5-22 "Vessel" Up 0.8% to 4.85 Million Viewers

This is the final season 5 ratings analysis update.  The last update was done on February 22, 2006, after 5-15 "Cyborg", and can be found below on this page.  If you scroll down even further than that, you'll find two charts that illustrate Smallville's viewership for new episodes, i.e., the first network airing in the U.S. of the show's 110 episodes to date.  The first chart is continuous showing all seasons in one black line, while the second is color-coded by season.

The ratings for the last block of 7 episodes, listed above, can only be characterized as disappointing.  The six-week hiatus of new episodes between 5-15 "Cyborg" and 5-16 "Hypnotic" explains some of the 23.4% drop for the latter.  "Cyborg" itself also explains some of it, because it had strong one-look appeal that caused a spike up in viewership.  Smallville's biggest episode-to-episode drop was in season 2, after the first Christopher Reeve guest spot in "Rosetta".  There was actually a 7 week hiatus after that one, and viewership dropped a record 32.2%, from 8.7 to 5.9 million.  Again, that was partly the hiatus and partly the fact that "Rosetta" had spiked up about 10% from the previous episode.  But "Rosetta" itself was also to blame.  Many expected more substance to the Swann character played by Reeve, something that was more mysterious and foreshadowing.  When they didn't get it, many lost some interest in the show.

Some "Clana" (Clark-Clana relationship fans) have been blaming the recent ratings drop on the 100th episode "Reckoning".  That was the one where Clark told Lana his secret the first time through (and proposed as well).  But then she died, and after using the time crystal to reverse things Clark decided not to tell her the second time through.  From the Clana fans' point of view, they felt they'd been cheated.  Fact is, though, "Cyborg" fully got back up to "Reckoning" levels AND it was also a very Clana-friendly episode.  It had Clark referring to Lana as his girlfriend, and a loft scene near the end where he said to her "I've always loved you.  I always will... no matter what happens".  There's just no evidence that, because of "Cyborg", Clana fans left.  Indeed, quite the opposite.  It was those sick to death of Clana, thinking it had been finally over in "Reckoning" and the intervening episodes, who would have been most disillusioned by that "Cyborg" loft scene near the end.

Then we had "Hypnotic", where in the space of one episode -- imagine how this will play on DVD and in syndication, folks, without the six-week hiatus -- we had yet another Clark-Lana loft scene near the end.  In this one Clark stared Lana in the face and said "I don't love you".  He said that because he wanted to end it, for her sake.  This one is the ending that would have driven some of the remaining Clana fans away, and indeed there's some posted evidence of that online.  But additional viewers just sick of this going on and on, back and forth, perhaps not believing it would ever end, may also have left at this point.  And so we see the drop after "Hypnotic" of another 11.3%, or 540,000 viewers, to "Void".

The new season low in viewership for the following episode, 5-18 "Fragile", can be forgiven to a large extent.  That was both Holy Thursday and the first day of Passover, and the drop of 7.1% was more than recovered the following week.

Another possible factor in Smallville's ratings woes is the state of flux that the WB and new CW were in during this period, including affiliate agreements still being signed throughout it.  It's possible that some disillusioned outgoing affiliates didn't really have their heart in it or weren't as strongly promoting WB programming.  That may also explain the failure of the WB to promote the finale as effectively as they could have, including the Clark-Chloe kiss, and a clearer promotion of Zod taking over Lex and the resulting "Zex" having super powers.  They may not have cared to invest great promotion in some affiliates who won't be back, while some of the new ones won't be coming on board until the Fall.  Better to wait for the Fall and the new CW launch to have the really big promotional push, including hopefully strong on-screen content, even stuntish content, to support that.

At the end of the day, though, the finale was the lowest-rated in five seasons, bringing in 620,000 fewer viewers, and down 11.3%, from the previous finale low in season 4.  That's even though season 5 (new episodes only) was up an average of 5.7% in viewership over season 4.  So Smallville did rebound in season 5, but mainly on the strength of its first two-thirds to about "Cyborg".  By the end of the season, it was as weak as it's ever been just looking at the viewership numbers.  The finale does seem to have been well received though, and offers a lot of possibilities for a rebound again in season 6.  Hopefully it'll be a sustained rebound this time.

Again, following is the old analysis of the last block of episodes, and then if you scroll down you'll see the two viewership graphs.

AMW (KalElFan)

February 22, 2006 (with minor edit April 29, 2006)...

 
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100th Episode, 5-12"Reckoning", Draws 6.28 Million Viewers
5-13 "Vengeance" Down 14.5% to 5.37 Million
5-14 "Tomb" Stabilizes (Up 0.74%) at 5.41 Million Viewers
5-15 "Cyborg" Back Up to 6.24 Million Viewers
[The next ratings update and analysis will be done around the end of season 5]

The final viewership number for the much-hyped episode #100 came in at 6.28 million, an increase of 1.38 million and 28% over the previous week's tally.  Only one episode since early season 3 had a higher number of viewers, episode 5-4 "Aqua" with 6.4 million.  "Reckoning" had very good 18-34 demos especially on the male side, as Smallville continued to set ratings records and establish a strong foothold for The WB on Thursday nights.

Although #100's viewership was close to the 6.5 million I predicted online several weeks prior, it was below the season high that many were expecting.  Most were anticipating a sharp drop for the followup episode "Vengeance" on February 2, as it was thought many if not most of the 1.38 million gained, along with some others perhaps, would roll back out again.  Indeed there was a 14.5% drop in viewership, but the show remained above its pre-100 levels and ahead of last year.  The next episode "Tomb" then stabilized, up less than 1% or about 40,000 viewers.  Cyborg, the latest new episode before a six-week hiatus, saw viewership back up very near "Reckoning" levels, at 6.24 million.

The two charts below illustrate Smallville's viewership for new episodes, i.e., the first network airing in the U.S. of its 103 episodes to date.  The first chart is continuous showing all seasons in one line, while the second is color-coded by season.

AMW (KalElFan)

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Smallville Ratings Graphs

May 2006

GRAPH #1

GRAPH #2

 

Source: Nielsen Media Research, via USA Today and/or other sources.  Viewership for new episodes only is charted.

 

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