The
two charts below illustrate Smallville's viewership for new episodes,
i.e., the first network airing in the U.S. of the show's 114 episodes to
date. The first chart is continuous showing all seasons in one
black line, while the second is color-coded by season.
As
of this writing, four episodes of Smallville season 6 have aired.
The first was down 940,000 viewers from the corresponding episode last
season, the second down 1,320,000, the third down 1,040,000, and the
fourth down 1,750,000.
The average decline of over 1 and a quarter million viewers per episode works out to
a 21.0%
drop,
and all four episodes represented new all-time lows for a first, second,
third and fourth episode of Smallville respectively. The second chart
at the very bottom of the page, with the
lime green trendline representing season 6, illustrates this.
Smallville's
consistent trend, especially the last three seasons, has been a
significant ratings decline to a winter low about 25% off the season
premiere's numbers. Since it's started out below 5 million viewers
this season, for the first time ever, a repeat of that trend would put
the show regularly below 4 million in early 2007. It dipped below
4 million twice in season 4 and once in season 5, but it's coming off
the much worse start this year. As a comparative example, two former
genre series on The WB, Birds of Prey and Angel, were both canceled
after dipping below 4 million. The first failed in its first
season, while the second was ended after five seasons.
"Spinning"
of the numbers has been rampant, by The CW and on various boards and web
sites, with (i) the weakness of The CW's other shows, (ii) the need for
viewers to
find Smallville on another station in some markets, and (iii) the
competition on other networks often being cited. But fact is, America's Next Top
Model (4 episodes to date this season), WWE Friday Night Smackdown (4
episodes) and Veronica Mars (2 episodes), all former UPN shows, have
increased viewership, by 6.0%, 5.1% and 5.0% respectively in comparison to the
start of last season. They've managed that even though about twice as many former
UPN viewers had to follow their shows to new stations, compared with The
WB's viewers. Blaming
the need for some people to find their shows just won't cut it.
There
may very well be some truth to the "excuse" that The WB shows
have been hurt more by the merger, because the affiliates that they
switched to were weaker on average. However, One Tree Hill (a
former WB show) has managed to stay about the same as last year, in fact
it's up 0.8%. It's benefited from the America's Next Top Model lead-in, but
nevertheless it demonstrates that it can be done.
Smallville's
major competition in week 2 was also down over the first week, with
Survivor and Ugly Betty declining more than 3 million viewers between
them. Yet Smallville was unable to pick up any net viewers (it
actually lost). Ugly Betty was down again in week 3, as was
Survivor by a smaller margin, and baseball
was down about 2 million compared to last season. Yet Smallville
was still down more than one million from last year, below 5 million
viewers and with less than what it had 2 weeks earlier. So again, competition
doesn't excuse it. The
viewers were out there and available. In fact several million more
viewers tune in for major network programming at 9 o'clock on Thursday,
with Grey's Anatomy and CSI being the top 2 shows in the ratings this
season.
The
problem is that Smallville's offerings to its existing base, and its pitch to
potential new and lapsed viewers, just hasn't been good enough. If
it were, the show would not now find itself in its
weakest ratings position ever to start a season.
Among
shows on The CW, Smallville is still second to America's Next Top Model,
with Gilmore Girls not far behind. But Smallville is an aging,
expensive show and it can't afford to be in the pack, especially not
this early in the season given its track record of declines towards the
end of the season. If those past season trends hold, Smallville
will be further back in The CW pack early in 2007, closer to The CW shows with
the lowest viewership than the highest. At that point, cheaper new programming with some
upside will become an even more attractive alternative for The CW network,
assuming a Last Season for Smallville announcement doesn't come before
then. The trend lines in those graphs below, looked at independent of
any insight into the show, do not suggest much hope that the show can ever
recover.
Smallville
Content -- Analysis and Recommendations
Bringing
insight to bear, Smallville could still recover but it would have to start
with a recognition that its season 6 strategy has failed. The
failure was very predictable and indeed it was predicted. The only
hope for the show was that it might have been able to ride a tide from The
CW launch and promotion generally. Most observers including this
writer thought there would be a general bump up despite the bad strategy
and not because of it. But if there had been, we'd now be suffering
unfounded claims that the content and promotion strategy was the
reason. So there's a certain clarity, Karma and/or poetic justice at
work here. Smallville is getting what it deserves based on what it
was serving up and promoting. The weakness of The CW may give it yet
another chance to save itself, though, so it may not be doomed yet.
The last half of season 6 is still in play if the right decisions are made
on that and the promotional focus for the show now.
Again,
though, it has to start with recognizing that not only
did the Zod cliffhanger resolution, the Green Arrow with a second-rate JLA on
the horizon, and Jimmy Olsen not draw, that package lost. Likewise more Lois Lane in
the promotion, and billing Jimmy Olsen as a love interest for Chloe.
The greater damage of the latter strategy has been to forego the potential ratings benefits that
Clark-Chloe has been proven to have in this series. The Lois Lane
"light-switch" into journalism in the second episode, written
and played with almost open derision, makes Durance's Lois as much of a
disgrace as she's ever been in this show IF SHE'S THE TRADITIONAL LOIS
LANE. More than ever, and with as much urgency as ever, she needs to
have an alternate destiny if Smallville is to avoid seeing its once great potential
not only fail to be realized on or salvaged, but degrade into a steaming
pile of crap.
The
presence of Jimmy Olsen and the writing of the character, though well
acted, will only make matters worse the longer it goes on.
Jeepers Jimmy is a joke. None of the regular characters in this
show, going back to season 1, with the exception of Lois Lane, have come
close to that tone. It fit in Lois & Clark and other
incarnations with a guy flying around in blue tights and a red cape, but
the Jimmy Olsen character doesn't fit the tone of Smallville. He
also doesn't belong and he threatens to damage the Chloe character
further, so it's a triple or quadruple problem for Smallville. Mack
has played it well and very professionally and so has Ashmore, but it can
only work now as a very short arc that evokes some jealousy on Clark's
part and wakes him up, setting the stage for Clark-Chloe. That
destination needs to be promoted now. It will do no good to
light-switch into Chlark at this point or mid-season. It would have
to be towards the end of this season, but again promoted now. The
Smallville Twist on the story has the UNIQUE potential to get publicity
and boost ratings, because it's not same old same old.
A
Death of Lois Lane episode may be tempting for February sweeps, because of
its potential to get huge publicity and boost ratings. If it did,
it's possible that it might get the series a season 7 renewal and provide
more time before the Chlark phase of the series would start. But
failing that, the best "solution" for Lois is probably the one
that's currently in the forefront, a romantic destiny with Green Arrow, or
the billionaire Oliver Queen. He's a proxy for Batman, a character
the Smallville PTB couldn't get the rights to. While not Batman
caliber, he'll do.
Justin
Hartley's first scene attempted to literally elevate the new arrival by
using camera shots that had him looking down on John Glover's Lionel
Luthor. It didn't really work, and Hartley's approach to delivering
dialogue seemed to have a soap opera feel to it. It got better from
there though, and the character best hit his stride in the scene with Lois
at the end of "Wither". He intentionally
"misses" the can, out of chivalry in the best interpretation of
it. He likes Lois but doesn't want to use his super skills to take
advantage of her. Lois shows a hint of disappointment that he
missed, and so it's well set up for an arc that gets these two
together. Spoilers suggest some bumps in the road, but the chemistry
works better than Clark-Lois ever would, and better than Aquaman-Lois last
season. Go with that rather than the Lois death ratings stunt.
Lois's and Oliver's political interests also fit the Different Destiny of
Lois Lane here, and it should be foreshadowed on-screen after appropriate
hinting and so on, in interviews and promotion, that that's very much a
possibility and indeed may be what's on the way.
The
JLA formation -- they're about to start production on 6-11
"Justice" -- has to be viewed as part of Clark's development at
this point, including as a prelude to Chlark as well. The Clark
character -- aimless and moping around as he is and almost self-pitying --
is also in danger of becoming an irreparable disgrace at this point.
If he isn't aimless, moping and self-pitying, he flirts with the Park
Ranger (saying that he'd remember if they'd met), after seeming to be
jealous of Chloe-Jimmy, and about to be a little jealous of Oliver-Lois
while still ridden with angst over Lana-Lex. Again, it's almost an
irreparable disgrace and it should be addressed immediately, including the
removal of whatever obstacles or replacement of any people who are in the
way of doing that. Whatever's in the pipe can perhaps be tweaked to
minimize further damage or place it in a better context, and here's a
suggestion for how that can be done with the JLA arc...
There
is one Clark character study or description that works and is consistent
with everything we've seen since season 1, including Clark's actions in
"Reckoning" where he proposed to Lana but then quickly abandoned
even telling her when she died and got resurrected through the time
crystal. It's that Clark has a savior complex or duty, as Chloe
pegged him for back in season 1's 1-19 "Crush". We've seen
it repeatedly. He saves first, as he did with Lana in his
telling her of his secret and his marriage proposal to save her from Lex,
and then giving her up completely to save her life. His
"love" for Lana -- his pining after the unattainable for years,
while not really pursuing the attainable Chloe -- was a defense mechanism
related to his savior complex. He expects that any relationship will
end badly just as his "Red Kal" persona said to the bartender in
the season 3 premiere, so what's the point? He doesn't think that he
can ever have a real relationship because he'll always be saving
people. And so when the Lana proposal of marriage led to disaster,
he was actually subconsciously relieved that it came down to saving her
life and was quick to give up Plan A. His Lana Love had always been
more of a crutch that he leaned on, an outlet for his wanting to have a
normal relationship yet not believing he ever could. That outlet
continues to manifest in the seemingly absurd On The Rebound flirting with
Park Rangers and "jealousy" of Oliver-Lois.
The
Ultimate Romance he really wants and will have -- if they do it right --
is with Chloe Sullivan, Smallville's version of the Daily Planet reporter
character. But even though Chloe responded well to his secret,
encourages him, works well with him and is interested in him romantically,
as he sees it he could never have a normal life with her. Much as he
might want to, it would never work in his view because he'll be busy and
duty-bound saving the world. Any jealousy of Chloe-Jimmy is tempered
by his psyche perhaps seeing this as a way of rationalizing the hopeless
outcome -- well, she just got over him and is ending up with Jimmy.
Again, though, in the Ultimate Romance scenario, he hates the prospect of
losing Chloe more than anything and it's more at the core of his
aimlessness and moping and self pitying and all the rest than anything
else is.
The
best use of the early JLA formation by Oliver Queen -- in this critical
context for Smallville, which is the series romantic arc with Clark-Chloe
-- is Clark realizing that it isn't all on his shoulders. Oliver
Queen in a serious relationship with Lois -- make it so any jealousy on
Clark's part is more of the ability to have a relationship than of
Oliver-Lois per se -- and The Cyborg character with his serious girlfriend
if she returns, pair the professional and personal revelations that he CAN
have a relationship. Throw in traditional girlfriend mentions for
Flash and Aquaman to strengthen it even further. The point of the
early JLA introduction in Smallville will not so much be to defeat the
last Phantom Zone escapees in the A-Plot (if that's what it is). It
will be to help Clark realize it's time to step up to his hero
responsibilities AND to step up in his personal life, triggering the
Chlark Ultimate Romance finish of that series arc.
Summary
and Conclusion
Of
course the above is all hypothetical and anything from the gay subtext to
DC or movie studio dogma on Lois Lane might be an insurmountable obstacle
to it ever happening. But that's the vision and it has the potential
to at least salvage a series that's in serious danger of becoming a
disgrace on several fronts at this point. The series won't just be a
"steaming pile of Ultimate Contrivance crap" because of the
Chloe character and the missed opportunity to do that twist on the
story. At the rate it's going in early season 6, it's becoming a
spectacular implosion that will damage careers all around. It would
have been that creatively in any case, but the ratings woes only make it
that much worse because the gambit that this bad approach would be masked
by a general ratings spike up for The CW has failed. It makes it all
the more critical that steps be set into motion now to correct course AND
promote that.
While
I'm at it, one more personal observation or assessment. The online
feedback right now, in Smallville cyberspace, is more unreliable than
any I've seen since the implosion of Lois & Clark back in 1996.
Then as now, spin and denial was the norm. The wave of negative
voices had subsided because they'd left and moved on. I know the
feeling. I haven't updated the smallville-twist.org site for a month
and a half. I recommend The Departed theatrically, and Shark and
Heroes on the tube. I'm still watching Lost. Battlestar
Galactica is still interesting at least. So is Jericho, which I also
gave a try though I'm very skeptical it can sustain. Supernatural is
a better show than Smallville right now, as is everything else I've
mentioned. It's sad, especially for the core cast who share no blame
in it. But I've spent the time to watch the show and post my
thoughts in the hopes that they take advantage of what's probably their
final opportunity to salvage and even turn around the show's
fortunes. Again, they would need to BOTH change course as I've
described AND start communicating and promoting that.
AMW
(KalElFan)
